* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 84 81 78 81 80 80 76 63 48 40 28 25 23 21 19 V (KT) LAND 90 87 84 81 78 81 80 80 76 54 37 33 21 18 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 85 81 79 80 83 75 59 45 33 36 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 11 15 8 14 35 45 34 27 22 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -6 -2 -4 4 8 3 2 3 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 357 360 334 328 313 226 205 186 165 189 225 272 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.3 25.1 24.2 22.1 20.3 16.6 13.6 12.7 10.5 5.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 113 109 108 103 92 86 77 73 71 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 98 98 96 97 94 85 80 73 70 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.4 -55.9 -55.9 -55.9 -55.6 -55.1 -54.4 -54.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.3 0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 57 58 52 49 48 59 61 59 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 25 24 29 35 45 48 41 31 26 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 14 9 24 54 110 108 62 37 14 65 75 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -51 -21 12 16 42 52 31 43 84 58 43 50 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 10 8 8 -20 -81 -93 -89 -15 34 50 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1983 1911 1840 1739 1639 1416 1026 627 471 -7 -3 376 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.4 31.8 32.5 33.1 35.0 38.4 42.8 47.8 53.2 58.0 62.0 66.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.4 33.3 32.3 30.8 29.3 25.4 21.0 16.8 12.8 9.0 5.5 2.3 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 14 17 21 26 28 29 28 24 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -20. -29. -39. -48. -54. -60. -65. -68. -70. -71. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -7. -10. -12. -11. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. 1. 8. 20. 25. 15. 1. -7. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -9. -10. -10. -14. -27. -42. -50. -62. -65. -67. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.9 34.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 531.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 6( 25) 8( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 84 81 78 81 80 80 76 54 37 33 21 18 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 86 83 80 83 82 82 78 56 39 35 23 20 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 83 80 83 82 82 78 56 39 35 23 20 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 77 80 79 79 75 53 36 32 20 17 15 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 74 73 73 69 47 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 69 68 68 64 42 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 87 84 75 69 65 64 64 60 38 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS