* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 82 79 76 73 77 75 76 73 60 45 41 39 38 36 33 V (KT) LAND 85 84 82 79 76 73 77 75 76 73 60 45 41 39 38 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 85 85 83 80 78 75 79 80 72 56 42 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 15 20 16 12 9 22 44 50 35 22 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -7 2 9 0 6 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 360 345 357 9 352 318 220 203 181 156 175 196 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.0 25.8 24.9 23.8 22.1 19.8 15.9 13.5 12.7 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 112 114 113 107 100 92 84 75 72 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 94 96 98 98 95 91 84 78 71 69 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.7 -56.6 -56.1 -56.2 -55.7 -54.8 -54.3 -54.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 2.1 3.1 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 53 53 54 47 50 52 64 66 63 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 25 25 23 23 29 34 45 48 41 31 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 8 16 12 58 112 115 59 57 61 35 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -25 -33 -22 7 49 52 28 35 64 64 66 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 6 9 -3 -43 -120 -117 -106 -40 -11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2098 2059 2000 1928 1857 1666 1484 1053 698 499 110 108 469 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.6 32.0 33.5 35.9 39.2 43.4 48.3 53.2 58.0 62.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.7 35.1 34.5 33.4 32.4 29.4 25.6 21.4 17.7 14.5 11.2 7.7 4.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 10 12 17 22 24 26 27 26 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -17. -24. -32. -40. -46. -52. -57. -60. -62. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -6. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. 1. 7. 21. 25. 15. 1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -8. -10. -9. -12. -25. -40. -44. -46. -47. -49. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.5 35.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 554.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 5( 21) 4( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 82 79 76 73 77 75 76 73 60 45 41 39 38 36 33 18HR AGO 85 84 82 79 76 73 77 75 76 73 60 45 41 39 38 36 33 12HR AGO 85 82 81 78 75 72 76 74 75 72 59 44 40 38 37 35 32 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 69 73 71 72 69 56 41 37 35 34 32 29 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 67 65 66 63 50 35 31 29 28 26 23 IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 63 67 65 66 63 50 35 31 29 28 26 23 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT