* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/10/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 66 73 77 75 74 76 79 78 77 72 69 60 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 59 66 73 77 75 74 76 79 78 77 72 69 60 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 55 59 66 73 74 70 67 66 67 66 62 53 47 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 10 8 10 5 11 14 17 14 10 17 40 24 17 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -6 -8 -6 -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 -7 0 5 8 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 272 277 285 311 340 347 357 352 11 339 306 221 210 213 223 239 258 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.1 25.4 25.0 24.7 22.4 21.2 19.1 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 107 108 109 111 112 114 115 115 114 115 109 106 107 93 87 81 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 89 90 92 93 95 96 97 97 99 95 92 97 85 79 75 70 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.6 -57.6 -57.4 -57.4 -57.1 -57.0 -56.2 -56.3 -55.7 -55.7 -55.6 -55.8 -55.6 -56.7 -57.6 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 51 52 52 52 52 52 53 55 56 48 41 48 56 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 21 23 26 27 25 25 27 30 33 35 33 33 28 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -16 -11 -3 -6 -7 -11 -15 -5 14 54 98 87 50 13 10 14 200 MB DIV 1 -5 -11 -17 -9 1 -7 -48 -16 12 34 55 31 15 37 22 48 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 4 1 3 -1 -25 -34 -55 25 4 28 LAND (KM) 2039 2056 2074 2115 2156 2243 2203 2121 2013 1892 1733 1552 1391 818 503 248 202 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.0 31.9 31.6 31.2 30.5 30.2 30.4 31.0 31.8 32.7 33.7 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.9 38.6 38.4 38.3 38.1 37.7 37.0 36.0 34.7 32.9 30.6 27.9 25.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 4 4 4 3 6 7 10 11 12 22 24 21 25 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. -0. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 5. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 10. 9. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 32. 30. 29. 31. 34. 33. 32. 27. 24. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.0 38.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.85 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.16 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.3% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 8.3% 4.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% 2.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.9% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 52 56 59 66 73 77 75 74 76 79 78 77 72 69 60 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 55 62 69 73 71 70 72 75 74 73 68 65 56 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 55 62 66 64 63 65 68 67 66 61 58 49 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 52 56 54 53 55 58 57 56 51 48 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT