* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 67 63 57 46 34 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 58 45 37 33 29 30 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 60 46 37 32 29 30 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 22 31 29 41 61 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 7 9 -3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 277 263 257 257 250 263 274 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.6 26.9 27.1 26.1 23.6 21.7 13.3 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 122 126 129 119 101 91 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 110 114 117 108 93 84 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -52.1 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 2 5 4 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 67 61 57 55 51 45 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 18 15 14 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 -2 -7 -18 -25 0 -37 -17 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 60 47 76 77 61 38 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 26 19 34 65 21 41 34 -126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 3 -45 -184 -403 -534 -425 -171 26 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.8 32.4 34.2 35.9 39.3 42.2 44.7 47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.1 88.6 88.1 86.6 85.0 80.1 73.7 66.7 59.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 19 22 23 27 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 17 CX,CY: -2/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 815 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -18. -21. -23. -26. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -24. -26. -29. -32. -35. -39. -41. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -24. -36. -52. -57. -62. -67. -71. -74. -76. -79. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.1 89.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.5% 9.4% 7.6% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.5% 3.6% 2.7% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/08/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 58 45 37 33 29 30 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 56 48 44 40 41 38 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 58 54 50 51 48 39 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 52 53 50 41 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT