* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/06/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 57 62 68 69 67 67 54 41 38 35 32 31 30 30 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 57 62 68 44 32 29 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 55 59 66 43 32 29 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 8 8 8 11 19 22 41 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 0 0 2 2 3 8 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 63 345 324 316 295 257 289 276 267 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.4 28.6 29.0 29.0 27.9 27.5 24.8 23.3 19.0 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 148 155 154 138 134 108 98 80 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 165 161 144 148 144 125 122 98 89 75 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 6 7 3 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 77 76 68 63 57 47 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 20 20 19 17 18 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 94 61 28 25 2 -11 -19 1 -38 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 79 69 38 43 73 45 28 45 -7 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 0 13 14 5 19 25 55 44 10 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 224 78 155 335 314 87 -257 -368 -188 16 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 21.2 22.9 24.6 26.3 29.4 32.6 35.7 38.4 40.7 43.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.1 87.0 87.7 88.4 88.2 85.8 82.1 77.6 72.4 67.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 19 18 17 16 20 22 23 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 112 58 47 57 37 14 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 17 CX,CY: -5/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -7. -13. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 17. 23. 25. 22. 22. 9. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 85.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 46.6% 31.4% 17.6% 11.9% 23.5% 22.5% 17.9% Logistic: 25.6% 51.2% 44.2% 30.8% 11.2% 24.0% 28.4% 3.6% Bayesian: 8.9% 15.0% 17.8% 7.4% 3.8% 14.9% 1.5% 0.1% Consensus: 17.2% 37.6% 31.2% 18.6% 9.0% 20.8% 17.5% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/06/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 57 62 68 44 32 29 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 49 52 57 63 39 27 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 49 55 31 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 46 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT