* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162017 10/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 51 59 61 60 55 51 52 48 42 42 44 45 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 32 30 40 48 50 49 44 33 29 27 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 31 30 36 41 44 46 46 35 29 28 29 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 11 10 11 5 8 13 22 25 22 13 12 52 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 0 0 0 1 3 4 1 -1 1 4 14 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 226 219 205 198 169 88 7 347 345 340 340 265 261 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.1 29.6 28.4 27.9 26.9 25.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 171 171 170 165 167 155 164 144 137 125 116 102 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 165 171 171 168 163 162 145 151 130 121 109 102 90 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 7 7 8 7 7 5 6 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 86 87 85 84 84 80 79 79 80 77 72 65 57 61 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 15 16 18 15 13 12 10 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 142 147 164 180 170 103 13 -3 -47 -37 -31 -33 -7 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 143 156 158 169 139 86 74 0 50 32 71 44 42 -16 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -6 -11 -16 -1 4 39 23 57 24 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 100 54 11 -58 -11 234 76 208 365 139 -179 -257 -371 -399 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 18.0 20.7 23.4 26.2 28.9 31.6 34.1 36.6 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.6 83.0 83.4 83.8 84.1 85.1 86.2 87.2 87.3 86.4 84.9 82.9 81.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 18 20 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 49 50 45 58 87 69 57 79 15 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 34. 36. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -0. -1. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -12. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. -0. -3. -6. -9. -9. -13. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 29. 31. 30. 25. 21. 22. 18. 12. 12. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 82.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.97 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 153.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.84 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -7.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.93 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 49.5% 31.8% 11.1% 8.1% 27.0% 42.9% 60.9% Logistic: 11.0% 73.9% 42.4% 19.6% 10.8% 31.0% 57.5% 81.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 7.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 10.0% 2.0% 49.2% Consensus: 6.6% 43.6% 25.2% 10.3% 6.4% 22.7% 34.1% 63.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 32 30 40 48 50 49 44 33 29 27 29 29 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 32 27 25 35 43 45 44 39 28 24 22 24 24 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 21 19 29 37 39 38 33 22 18 16 18 18 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 28 36 38 37 32 21 17 15 17 17 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT