* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAMON EP192017 10/04/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 44 44 45 46 47 48 51 54 57 57 56 54 53 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 44 44 44 45 46 47 48 51 54 57 57 56 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 46 45 44 43 40 38 37 37 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 30 29 30 27 27 30 35 29 29 14 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 8 8 6 14 12 10 0 1 7 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 61 65 51 53 53 40 44 40 48 45 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.2 29.6 29.6 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 152 157 161 160 159 153 148 145 145 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 10 7 9 8 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 80 80 79 76 74 73 65 64 58 62 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 109 108 116 117 68 60 88 84 62 25 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 102 76 82 65 36 40 12 28 47 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 -5 -3 -9 -13 -13 -7 -9 -5 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 100 117 135 180 231 334 405 495 593 706 791 814 796 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.2 98.2 99.3 100.5 102.9 104.8 106.5 108.2 109.8 111.1 111.9 112.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 12 11 9 8 8 7 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 20 33 39 33 25 17 12 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 28. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -23. -24. -23. -20. -20. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 17. 16. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 96.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192017 RAMON 10/04/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 1.6% Consensus: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192017 RAMON 10/04/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##