* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 55 56 55 47 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 55 56 55 47 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 54 55 53 46 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 8 14 17 22 36 54 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 4 9 10 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 312 193 207 217 233 228 225 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.8 25.9 25.1 20.8 21.5 15.7 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 126 118 111 88 92 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 109 113 107 102 83 86 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 43 41 38 37 28 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 27 27 29 30 26 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 102 104 80 66 45 0 -5 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 21 25 34 34 42 3 -23 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -22 -21 -22 8 0 -43 -82 -249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 597 692 726 787 815 704 1036 1602 890 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.3 37.6 38.4 39.1 41.3 44.2 47.2 50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.8 64.3 61.8 58.7 55.7 48.5 40.3 31.5 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 23 25 27 32 34 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 4 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 789 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -14. -17. -21. -25. -30. -35. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. -4. -14. -20. -21. -23. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -8. -30. -51. -53. -55. -57. -61. -65. -66. -66. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 36.9 66.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 400.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.0% 9.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.1% 3.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.7% 4.4% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/29/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 55 55 56 55 47 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 56 55 47 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 52 51 43 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 45 37 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT