* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 59 55 50 55 51 46 42 41 38 35 28 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 64 59 55 50 55 51 46 42 41 38 35 28 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 59 54 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 42 35 36 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 0 0 -2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 5 2 338 324 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.5 25.4 22.2 22.9 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 124 114 95 98 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 112 105 89 91 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 6 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 54 56 53 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 15 13 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -108 -60 -21 -16 17 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 38 39 44 45 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 37 56 44 6 -158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1171 1039 862 767 820 1189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 37.4 39.1 41.1 43.1 47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.5 53.3 51.0 47.5 44.0 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 25 29 33 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -25. -27. -30. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. -25. -28. -31. -34. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -20. -15. -19. -24. -28. -29. -32. -35. -42. -51. -56. -61. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 35.6 55.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 523.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/29/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/29/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 64 59 55 50 55 51 46 42 41 38 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 64 60 55 60 56 51 47 46 43 40 33 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 62 57 62 58 53 49 48 45 42 35 26 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 60 56 51 47 46 43 40 33 24 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT