* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 57 56 55 56 45 28 29 29 30 29 26 27 28 27 V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 57 56 55 56 45 28 29 29 30 29 26 27 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 55 54 55 55 48 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 6 7 16 28 33 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 4 0 2 -2 -1 3 14 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 319 313 317 201 261 232 234 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.6 27.1 25.1 19.3 20.0 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 120 123 129 112 84 87 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 104 107 115 102 80 81 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 52 47 44 42 43 41 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 27 26 26 31 27 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 43 88 108 113 58 36 -33 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 20 28 15 14 10 28 -7 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 2 -3 -24 -34 -46 -81 -154 -132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 481 555 601 683 712 793 661 1042 1564 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 36.9 36.9 37.3 37.6 39.1 41.7 44.8 47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.0 68.3 66.7 64.4 62.2 56.2 48.6 39.9 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 16 18 21 28 33 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 1 1 4 17 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. -5. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -15. -32. -31. -31. -30. -31. -34. -33. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.8 70.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.3% 10.6% 8.7% 8.2% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.2% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.1% 5.2% 3.4% 2.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/28/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 58 57 56 55 56 45 28 29 29 30 29 26 27 28 27 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 57 56 57 46 29 30 30 31 30 27 28 29 28 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 53 54 43 26 27 27 28 27 24 25 26 25 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 48 49 38 21 22 22 23 22 19 20 21 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT