* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 87 82 75 63 48 34 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 91 87 82 75 63 48 34 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 92 88 83 79 68 55 45 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 23 26 33 29 28 25 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 1 1 1 0 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 3 14 3 3 359 338 307 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 25.3 22.9 17.5 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 133 132 132 113 99 80 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 115 114 117 104 92 77 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 6 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 47 45 46 53 54 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 17 14 12 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -102 -123 -130 -141 -134 -100 -91 -16 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -24 -11 -48 -12 15 -9 4 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 5 17 32 38 -17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1531 1448 1368 1274 1175 865 872 1383 1094 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.3 33.2 34.5 35.7 39.1 42.7 46.5 50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.2 57.1 56.9 56.0 55.1 50.8 43.6 34.6 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 12 15 19 28 35 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 7 7 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -16. -27. -37. -44. -48. -52. -55. -59. -61. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -17. -16. -17. -15. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -24. -26. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -20. -32. -47. -61. -80. -85. -87. -90. -92. -94. -94. -94. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 31.4 57.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 836.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 10( 25) 5( 29) 0( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 91 87 82 75 63 48 34 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 90 85 78 66 51 37 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 86 79 67 52 38 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 78 66 51 37 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 64 49 35 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 91 82 76 73 65 50 36 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 91 87 78 72 68 53 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS