* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 54 52 46 43 41 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 54 52 46 43 41 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 57 55 51 50 51 49 41 30 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 14 15 14 2 8 22 29 41 69 81 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 0 2 4 6 7 10 11 16 21 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 302 288 309 338 2 226 206 218 216 227 236 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.0 21.4 17.1 15.8 14.4 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 116 116 115 117 121 127 129 91 80 78 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 94 94 94 96 103 111 117 86 77 76 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.8 -49.8 -49.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -48.8 -46.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 6 5 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 58 59 49 41 38 36 30 17 21 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 38 35 35 31 29 29 28 26 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 9 0 -11 -1 29 108 85 74 36 14 31 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 31 7 -28 -26 19 10 39 47 21 -19 -33 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 6 4 1 -3 12 -3 -20 2 -77 -174 -294 -79 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 262 269 283 333 383 542 616 691 622 750 1413 868 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.3 35.6 35.9 36.2 36.6 37.4 38.8 41.1 44.3 47.7 51.2 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.0 72.8 72.6 72.1 71.5 69.3 65.4 60.1 53.0 44.1 33.9 22.8 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 7 13 19 26 33 38 40 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 3 2 1 2 3 13 19 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. -2. -10. -20. -29. -34. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -13. -16. -21. -33. -43. -43. -41. -40. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -17. -19. -23. -33. -54. -74. -83. -88. -89. -88. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 34.9 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.0% 8.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.3% 3.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/27/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 57 54 52 46 43 41 37 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 54 52 46 43 41 37 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 45 42 40 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 42 39 37 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT