* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 98 96 96 89 81 67 58 65 56 55 53 50 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 95 96 98 96 96 89 81 67 58 65 56 55 53 50 49 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 96 95 93 88 79 66 56 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 6 9 14 22 30 30 26 19 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 3 6 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 328 306 305 329 5 5 1 341 307 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 26.9 25.1 22.6 17.6 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 132 133 134 135 127 112 97 80 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 111 111 113 116 112 102 90 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.4 -55.1 -54.1 -53.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 7 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 44 43 44 44 41 48 51 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 22 19 22 20 19 15 14 25 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -83 -81 -91 -103 -136 -157 -110 -54 33 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -14 -12 -25 -20 -31 -34 39 44 55 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 1 4 20 40 13 -60 -137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1687 1671 1645 1570 1496 1335 1152 849 881 1381 1098 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.3 30.6 31.2 31.8 33.6 36.2 39.4 42.9 46.6 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.1 55.8 56.4 56.8 57.1 56.8 54.4 50.0 43.3 34.6 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 12 20 27 33 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 13 11 12 14 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -21. -29. -38. -46. -49. -52. -56. -57. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 3. 1. 1. -5. -7. 7. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 1. 1. -6. -14. -28. -37. -30. -39. -40. -42. -45. -46. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 30.0 55.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 793.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 12.3% 7.9% 2.7% 2.3% 1.9% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/27/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 19( 47) 11( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 98 96 96 89 81 67 58 65 56 55 53 50 49 48 46 18HR AGO 95 94 96 94 94 87 79 65 56 63 54 53 51 48 47 46 44 12HR AGO 95 92 91 89 89 82 74 60 51 58 49 48 46 43 42 41 39 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 78 70 56 47 54 45 44 42 39 38 37 35 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 69 61 47 38 45 36 35 33 30 29 28 26 IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 73 65 51 42 49 40 39 37 34 33 32 30 IN 12HR 95 96 98 89 83 79 71 57 48 55 46 45 43 40 39 38 36