* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 95 96 94 92 85 70 60 46 58 57 55 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 95 96 95 96 94 92 85 70 60 46 58 57 55 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 95 97 96 95 94 89 82 70 58 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 8 6 18 26 32 29 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -6 -3 -2 0 1 3 1 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 327 329 313 297 347 357 11 357 320 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.5 26.1 21.3 20.4 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 133 133 132 135 132 119 90 88 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 112 111 110 114 115 106 84 82 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.7 -55.6 -55.4 -54.4 -53.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 46 44 44 44 44 52 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 21 19 21 21 16 15 11 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -74 -81 -81 -91 -123 -151 -156 -102 -58 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -4 -8 -20 -26 -40 -31 -10 33 36 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 5 11 28 42 10 -189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1738 1705 1674 1648 1591 1445 1267 1023 818 1119 1586 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.7 31.1 32.5 34.7 37.5 40.7 44.2 47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.2 55.0 55.7 56.1 56.5 56.7 55.4 52.6 47.2 39.2 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 6 9 15 22 31 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 13 12 13 7 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -21. -29. -37. -44. -47. -50. -54. -56. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. -0. 2. 1. -4. -7. -14. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 1. -1. -3. -10. -25. -35. -49. -37. -38. -40. -42. -42. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 29.9 54.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 751.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 8.8% 5.3% 1.5% 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.2% 6.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 5.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/26/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 16( 42) 13( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 95 96 94 92 85 70 60 46 58 57 55 53 53 52 51 18HR AGO 95 94 93 94 92 90 83 68 58 44 56 55 53 51 51 50 49 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 90 88 81 66 56 42 54 53 51 49 49 48 47 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 83 81 74 59 49 35 47 46 44 42 42 41 40 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 74 67 52 42 28 40 39 37 35 35 34 33 IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 75 68 53 43 29 41 40 38 36 36 35 34 IN 12HR 95 96 95 86 80 76 69 54 44 30 42 41 39 37 37 36 35