* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 56 54 50 43 41 43 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 56 54 50 43 41 43 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 59 58 55 50 49 50 52 44 38 40 40 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 14 15 19 16 10 5 12 21 34 50 87 66 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -1 2 3 3 3 19 13 21 16 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 309 292 307 313 320 332 280 186 201 220 230 228 250 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.5 25.9 27.0 24.6 15.0 18.3 14.7 12.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 108 107 107 105 109 115 129 108 76 82 77 75 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 89 89 89 88 88 93 100 115 99 73 77 74 73 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 -46.1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.3 2.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 6 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 62 61 59 57 49 39 36 34 24 19 35 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 39 38 38 38 38 34 33 33 33 27 18 33 39 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 53 27 15 3 17 53 122 106 118 107 -26 120 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 13 1 -1 15 -21 28 12 60 55 35 -5 -25 26 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 9 3 6 6 0 1 0 -3 18 2 -52 -147 26 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 349 315 283 274 272 337 498 583 641 694 548 995 1485 628 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.8 34.3 34.7 35.1 35.7 36.3 36.9 38.2 40.2 43.0 46.4 49.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.0 72.8 72.0 70.1 67.2 62.5 56.1 48.5 39.8 31.2 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 6 11 16 23 29 34 34 42 49 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -18. -22. -26. -30. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -16. -28. -31. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -11. -13. -14. -24. -37. -16. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -11. -15. -22. -24. -22. -23. -36. -54. -48. -56. -60. -63. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 33.3 73.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/26/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 58 56 54 50 43 41 43 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 60 58 56 52 45 43 45 44 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 57 53 46 44 46 45 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 49 42 40 42 41 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT