* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 92 93 94 96 90 82 68 83 70 53 64 60 59 57 57 V (KT) LAND 90 91 92 93 94 96 90 82 68 83 70 53 64 60 59 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 90 92 93 92 91 90 88 79 71 68 57 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 7 10 8 5 20 30 33 13 3 39 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -6 -4 1 0 0 -1 14 21 19 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 57 351 326 332 298 5 7 3 13 252 258 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.2 25.3 23.0 18.0 15.9 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 133 133 134 135 130 113 98 81 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 113 112 111 112 116 115 103 91 77 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.2 -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -53.9 -53.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -50.1 -49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 8 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 45 42 45 44 41 39 43 50 53 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 18 19 20 22 20 20 15 33 26 19 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -62 -67 -80 -77 -99 -132 -165 -128 6 102 134 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 1 0 -10 -15 -17 -41 -23 19 34 32 26 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 0 1 5 17 41 -52 -133 -3 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1808 1753 1700 1682 1667 1547 1399 1222 918 898 1309 1206 518 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.5 31.5 33.3 35.7 38.8 42.4 45.9 49.2 52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.1 54.9 55.5 56.1 56.6 55.9 53.9 49.8 43.5 35.8 26.8 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 7 12 19 26 31 34 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 15 14 14 13 11 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -23. -30. -36. -42. -47. -51. -52. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -0. 3. 1. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 0. -6. 16. 7. -5. 15. 13. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 0. -8. -22. -7. -20. -37. -26. -30. -31. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 29.9 53.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 723.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 11.8% 7.6% 2.3% 1.2% 2.6% 2.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.8% 6.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 11.1% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 20 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/26/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 13( 23) 16( 36) 19( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 91 92 93 94 96 90 82 68 83 70 53 64 60 59 57 57 18HR AGO 90 89 90 91 92 94 88 80 66 81 68 51 62 58 57 55 55 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 88 90 84 76 62 77 64 47 58 54 53 51 51 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 83 77 69 55 70 57 40 51 47 46 44 44 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 73 67 59 45 60 47 30 41 37 36 34 34 IN 6HR 90 91 82 76 73 74 68 60 46 61 48 31 42 38 37 35 35 IN 12HR 90 91 92 83 77 73 67 59 45 60 47 30 41 37 36 34 34