* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 88 90 91 94 93 85 76 64 81 72 63 60 59 59 59 V (KT) LAND 85 87 88 90 91 94 93 85 76 64 81 72 63 60 59 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 85 87 88 89 89 89 87 83 74 72 68 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 4 6 2 14 21 28 28 10 9 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 0 -2 -2 0 2 2 -2 15 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 77 54 345 303 277 343 4 12 359 75 235 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.6 22.8 21.9 16.3 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 134 134 134 133 135 133 123 96 93 78 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 113 113 112 110 113 114 110 88 87 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.1 -55.8 -55.8 -54.8 -53.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 6 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 45 45 44 44 42 40 40 50 52 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 19 15 32 29 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -68 -67 -68 -78 -86 -118 -155 -151 -8 62 101 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -22 -6 5 0 -16 -45 -29 -6 50 56 23 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 0 1 0 2 12 20 49 -93 -58 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1847 1825 1789 1746 1705 1590 1474 1312 1101 837 984 1523 955 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.5 31.2 32.4 34.3 36.8 40.1 43.5 47.0 50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.9 53.8 54.5 55.3 56.3 56.3 55.3 52.7 48.1 41.4 32.6 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 8 13 20 27 33 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 16 17 14 12 12 9 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -24. -29. -34. -40. -43. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 4. 5. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 2. -1. -6. 15. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 8. 0. -9. -21. -4. -13. -22. -25. -26. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.1 52.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 655.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 15.8% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 10.1% 6.0% 2.0% 1.1% 3.7% 4.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 4.5% 14.5% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 13.5% 7.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.3% 1.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/26/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 12( 30) 16( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 87 88 90 91 94 93 85 76 64 81 72 63 60 59 59 59 18HR AGO 85 84 85 87 88 91 90 82 73 61 78 69 60 57 56 56 56 12HR AGO 85 82 81 83 84 87 86 78 69 57 74 65 56 53 52 52 52 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 76 79 78 70 61 49 66 57 48 45 44 44 44 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 69 68 60 51 39 56 47 38 35 34 34 34 IN 6HR 85 87 78 72 69 69 68 60 51 39 56 47 38 35 34 34 34 IN 12HR 85 87 88 79 73 69 68 60 51 39 56 47 38 35 34 34 34