* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 80 81 83 86 84 77 71 59 82 73 65 61 58 57 V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 80 81 83 86 84 77 71 59 82 73 65 61 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 80 81 81 82 82 81 77 68 61 62 58 53 51 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 10 8 6 4 10 7 18 23 29 33 2 16 81 49 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 0 -1 -5 -3 0 3 3 -3 15 12 -7 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 146 111 112 96 34 322 305 332 349 10 2 74 268 269 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 26.4 23.6 22.5 17.6 13.6 14.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 126 129 132 132 133 131 133 133 121 100 94 82 74 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 105 108 111 111 110 108 110 114 106 91 86 78 72 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.4 -56.5 -56.0 -55.7 -54.9 -53.8 -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -50.4 -50.0 -48.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 2.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 6 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 45 43 44 46 47 44 44 46 56 62 42 55 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 18 21 21 19 19 14 34 30 34 39 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -66 -71 -69 -78 -84 -92 -120 -150 -158 4 98 199 171 248 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -40 -27 -23 -21 7 3 -4 -27 -27 -18 61 53 45 62 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 1 1 4 17 24 55 -77 -5 -64 -80 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1807 1806 1806 1791 1771 1688 1596 1491 1364 1121 918 975 1248 610 412 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.6 30.7 31.1 31.8 32.8 34.4 36.7 39.6 43.1 46.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.2 50.8 51.4 52.1 52.8 54.0 54.6 54.6 53.6 51.3 47.3 41.8 36.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 7 12 18 24 26 46 34 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 11 14 17 19 26 18 16 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -24. -28. -33. -38. -42. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. 2. -5. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 2. 1. -6. 21. 14. 17. 21. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 4. -3. -9. -21. 2. -7. -15. -19. -22. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.6 50.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 623.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 12.4% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 9.0% 5.3% 2.8% 2.4% 6.7% 4.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.6% 4.9% 1.0% 0.8% 2.2% 1.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/25/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 8( 20) 9( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 79 80 81 83 86 84 77 71 59 82 73 65 61 58 57 18HR AGO 80 79 79 80 81 83 86 84 77 71 59 82 73 65 61 58 57 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 78 80 83 81 74 68 56 79 70 62 58 55 54 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 73 76 74 67 61 49 72 63 55 51 48 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT