* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 65 64 62 59 54 51 44 41 44 42 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 67 65 64 62 59 54 51 44 41 44 42 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 64 62 62 60 58 56 53 52 54 54 49 40 33 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 19 18 17 16 14 16 10 7 14 26 35 45 57 31 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 3 -1 0 0 0 8 5 3 14 17 17 21 5 0 SHEAR DIR 302 298 304 310 317 289 293 305 335 274 214 221 218 224 235 257 294 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.5 25.8 25.3 25.1 26.1 25.8 26.1 23.1 16.9 11.6 15.4 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 127 124 122 116 109 106 106 116 115 118 101 80 73 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 105 103 101 95 90 88 90 100 101 104 96 77 72 73 70 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -49.8 -50.3 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -49.6 -49.9 -48.7 -47.8 -50.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 7 5 7 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 61 65 66 66 60 59 50 42 37 33 37 41 30 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 41 41 40 40 39 40 37 35 37 36 32 25 16 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 72 62 62 51 43 50 25 22 27 61 95 103 120 168 277 55 -27 200 MB DIV 24 37 28 28 31 0 11 4 11 22 57 60 39 41 61 8 -29 700-850 TADV 14 12 13 18 13 5 6 3 8 22 -1 6 18 7 -85 -7 22 LAND (KM) 549 497 448 406 367 315 296 333 481 598 660 693 667 840 1321 566 233 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.4 31.9 32.4 32.9 33.8 34.5 35.2 35.8 36.6 37.7 39.2 40.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.2 73.1 72.8 72.1 70.4 67.7 63.8 58.9 54.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 6 10 14 19 20 38 51 38 32 25 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 15 10 9 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -25. -29. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -10. -13. -12. -13. -20. -29. -39. -42. -45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -16. -18. -26. -29. -26. -28. -39. -55. -75. -81. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 30.8 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.2% 6.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.2% 2.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/25/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 2( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 67 65 64 62 59 54 51 44 41 44 42 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 67 66 64 61 56 53 46 43 46 44 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 63 60 55 52 45 42 45 43 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 55 50 47 40 37 40 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT