* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 78 78 79 82 83 81 74 65 54 74 56 38 37 37 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 78 78 79 82 83 81 74 65 54 74 56 38 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 79 79 79 81 82 81 78 73 63 61 59 47 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 8 7 7 8 12 9 20 27 31 31 4 52 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 0 0 0 0 -7 1 1 2 1 1 11 3 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 162 132 105 91 18 341 313 337 351 4 2 61 279 308 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 26.9 25.4 23.8 22.0 13.7 14.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 124 127 131 132 131 131 132 125 112 100 95 75 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 100 103 106 109 110 108 108 111 107 98 89 90 73 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.4 -56.3 -56.5 -56.5 -55.8 -55.8 -54.2 -53.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -51.3 -50.4 -50.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 48 46 43 45 48 44 43 40 42 52 51 64 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 14 15 15 16 18 20 21 19 17 13 32 25 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -74 -63 -70 -74 -80 -92 -89 -116 -159 -164 -13 60 137 179 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -35 -37 -25 -24 3 -15 -27 -35 -31 -10 52 44 26 57 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 9 33 7 -43 -15 80 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1780 1786 1792 1786 1782 1744 1650 1553 1441 1247 1016 909 1007 1274 745 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.9 31.5 32.3 33.6 35.5 38.0 40.9 43.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.1 50.5 51.1 51.8 53.0 53.9 54.3 53.7 52.2 49.3 45.1 40.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 9 14 19 21 38 38 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 9 13 16 21 22 16 17 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -28. -32. -37. -41. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. 1. -2. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 2. -2. -7. 18. 7. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 3. 1. -6. -15. -26. -6. -24. -42. -43. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.9 49.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 589.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.5% 3.6% 2.0% 1.2% 3.8% 4.3% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 5.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 1.3% 1.4% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/25/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 6( 18) 7( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 78 78 78 79 82 83 81 74 65 54 74 56 38 37 37 18HR AGO 80 79 78 78 78 79 82 83 81 74 65 54 74 56 38 37 37 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 76 77 80 81 79 72 63 52 72 54 36 35 35 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 71 74 75 73 66 57 46 66 48 30 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT