* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 82 82 81 75 70 65 60 56 49 45 41 35 22 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 82 82 81 75 70 65 60 56 49 45 41 35 22 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 81 81 82 77 71 67 63 59 55 53 53 51 45 39 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 9 13 16 12 15 13 6 5 8 24 33 77 39 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 0 -1 0 -2 0 5 8 8 4 7 3 15 15 SHEAR DIR 257 311 337 317 301 322 308 290 309 312 294 222 222 229 234 245 256 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 28.2 28.4 28.1 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.7 25.7 25.6 26.4 26.6 17.3 13.1 18.5 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 137 141 136 127 119 114 108 110 111 119 126 81 74 83 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 115 117 112 104 97 93 89 92 94 101 118 78 71 79 79 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.8 -50.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -49.5 -50.7 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 6 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 60 59 64 66 63 58 55 45 41 30 37 40 32 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 42 40 41 43 41 40 40 40 40 39 35 33 32 30 27 25 16 850 MB ENV VOR 69 74 76 75 70 55 63 51 38 53 70 77 91 131 96 45 14 200 MB DIV 74 29 21 71 40 24 5 21 9 23 -5 26 23 21 22 -8 -11 700-850 TADV 6 12 15 13 11 12 5 9 3 5 18 6 -14 17 -70 66 -39 LAND (KM) 657 600 543 487 433 353 294 266 297 400 577 617 663 511 686 1482 1141 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.3 30.8 31.4 32.0 33.0 33.9 34.6 35.2 35.6 36.3 37.1 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.9 73.0 73.1 73.1 73.2 73.3 73.3 73.1 72.5 71.3 69.1 65.9 62.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 8 11 13 30 42 33 36 37 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 24 25 21 13 5 1 0 1 0 3 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -25. -30. -35. -37. -40. -44. -47. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. -2. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -16. -20. -22. -24. -27. -28. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -4. -10. -15. -20. -25. -29. -36. -40. -44. -50. -63. -70. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 29.7 72.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.3% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.0% 3.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/25/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 8( 24) 5( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 82 82 81 75 70 65 60 56 49 45 41 35 22 15 DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 84 83 77 72 67 62 58 51 47 43 37 24 17 DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 80 74 69 64 59 55 48 44 40 34 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 68 63 58 53 49 42 38 34 28 15 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 55 50 45 41 34 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT