* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 81 80 83 85 88 84 81 73 64 54 45 37 27 28 V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 81 80 83 85 88 84 81 73 64 54 45 37 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 80 80 81 84 85 85 83 78 72 64 54 46 38 34 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 19 23 32 37 33 49 54 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 1 3 3 1 0 1 3 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 224 217 168 159 162 82 27 327 310 341 10 21 24 301 302 305 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.5 26.6 25.3 19.8 17.6 17.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 123 124 126 129 132 131 129 128 130 121 114 87 80 79 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 100 101 104 108 110 107 106 107 111 103 106 83 76 74 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.7 -56.7 -56.2 -56.0 -56.0 -55.6 -55.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.0 -52.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 7 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 50 48 46 42 42 43 41 41 41 44 55 57 56 62 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 17 15 18 19 22 20 22 20 18 16 13 11 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -72 -71 -71 -68 -70 -77 -87 -97 -114 -146 -130 16 108 33 56 N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -5 -35 -42 -31 -16 0 -12 -27 -24 -55 -3 50 47 47 16 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 1 1 9 12 33 37 81 96 25 N/A LAND (KM) 1738 1762 1786 1800 1813 1811 1781 1737 1660 1567 1404 1206 1050 1145 1382 837 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.1 30.9 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.6 32.6 34.1 36.1 38.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.6 49.4 49.3 49.5 49.7 50.8 52.0 52.9 53.3 53.0 51.9 50.0 48.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 5 5 3 4 7 11 12 30 43 35 29 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 9 10 14 16 19 17 11 7 2 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. -30. -34. -37. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 4. 2. -2. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 1. 1. 4. 2. 3. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 0. 3. 5. 8. 4. 1. -7. -16. -26. -35. -43. -53. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.3 49.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 566.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 17.9% 13.5% 6.0% 3.2% 9.1% 6.4% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 6.1% 4.6% 2.0% 1.1% 3.0% 2.1% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/25/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 7( 20) 9( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 80 81 80 83 85 88 84 81 73 64 54 45 37 27 28 18HR AGO 80 79 79 80 79 82 84 87 83 80 72 63 53 44 36 26 27 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 76 79 81 84 80 77 69 60 50 41 33 23 24 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 72 74 77 73 70 62 53 43 34 26 16 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT