* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 100 101 98 97 91 85 79 71 58 47 41 39 43 37 34 V (KT) LAND 100 100 100 101 98 97 91 85 79 71 58 47 41 39 43 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 98 95 92 89 87 80 72 65 59 55 52 52 55 55 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 6 14 10 16 11 9 10 16 14 14 7 26 77 89 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 -3 2 3 1 -2 -3 3 6 4 3 12 17 4 SHEAR DIR 246 252 197 259 301 317 318 316 301 300 343 3 330 309 216 214 209 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.5 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.7 25.8 26.0 25.4 26.8 27.0 26.4 18.7 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 137 128 128 140 136 125 118 109 112 107 122 126 122 82 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 124 116 109 108 116 111 102 96 91 93 90 103 109 109 77 71 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -49.5 -49.7 -49.3 -49.3 -48.9 -49.5 -49.9 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 -47.6 -46.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.0 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 8 7 7 2 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 55 55 58 62 65 66 66 63 60 56 53 47 43 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 42 44 43 46 45 45 44 42 38 34 32 32 37 38 44 850 MB ENV VOR 39 48 71 75 81 80 70 67 54 49 36 48 63 51 108 213 183 200 MB DIV 55 70 90 65 16 69 48 30 -4 30 -36 10 -6 40 72 43 2 700-850 TADV 14 15 9 9 10 18 21 15 8 -2 0 10 -3 -1 -35 -23 -83 LAND (KM) 750 745 740 676 614 516 433 367 329 314 384 528 660 719 611 411 221 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.2 28.9 29.5 30.1 31.1 32.0 32.9 33.6 34.3 34.9 35.4 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.5 72.6 72.8 72.9 73.0 73.1 73.2 73.2 73.1 72.7 71.6 69.9 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 6 8 11 15 23 31 33 HEAT CONTENT 38 29 19 13 14 26 21 11 3 0 0 0 10 15 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -24. -32. -41. -47. -51. -55. -58. -60. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -10. -15. -18. -18. -12. -11. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. -2. -3. -9. -15. -21. -29. -42. -53. -59. -61. -57. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 27.5 72.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 539.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 11.3% 9.0% 5.3% 1.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 3.9% 3.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/24/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 22( 39) 21( 52) 20( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 57 9( 61) 0( 61) 0( 61) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 100 101 98 97 91 85 79 71 58 47 41 39 43 37 34 18HR AGO 100 99 99 100 97 96 90 84 78 70 57 46 40 38 42 36 33 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 94 93 87 81 75 67 54 43 37 35 39 33 30 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 86 80 74 68 60 47 36 30 28 32 26 23 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 74 68 62 54 41 30 24 22 26 20 17 IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 81 75 69 63 55 42 31 25 23 27 21 18 IN 12HR 100 100 100 91 85 81 75 69 63 55 42 31 25 23 27 21 18