* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 77 81 85 89 90 89 90 85 84 78 72 70 62 50 37 V (KT) LAND 65 72 77 81 85 89 90 89 90 85 84 78 72 70 62 50 37 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 78 82 84 86 86 87 87 85 83 80 75 70 60 50 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 8 4 8 12 11 10 8 4 5 14 17 37 42 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -4 -6 -2 -1 -2 -5 -5 0 6 0 -1 -8 -5 15 SHEAR DIR 260 285 197 202 188 165 153 144 126 125 248 353 13 1 346 51 109 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.3 25.8 24.2 24.1 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 125 124 124 125 129 130 131 129 130 128 114 101 102 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 100 102 103 102 102 103 107 108 109 108 108 107 99 88 91 78 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -56.9 -56.5 -56.2 -55.9 -55.8 -54.9 -54.4 -53.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 1 700-500 MB RH 51 52 54 55 54 49 46 42 43 43 43 42 40 39 44 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 16 16 17 20 20 21 21 20 20 17 13 6 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -75 -68 -71 -73 -72 -69 -77 -67 -74 -79 -107 -135 -156 -139 -33 -81 200 MB DIV 0 -12 -9 1 -16 -25 -2 5 5 -10 -13 -32 -24 -1 18 18 -22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 16 28 27 75 LAND (KM) 1665 1683 1702 1728 1753 1824 1862 1862 1821 1727 1602 1434 1278 1153 968 1119 1289 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 31.8 31.6 31.4 31.2 30.6 30.2 30.1 30.4 31.2 32.3 33.8 35.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.1 49.9 49.8 49.5 49.3 49.0 49.4 50.2 50.9 51.7 52.2 52.5 52.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 7 7 10 16 15 20 27 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 9 9 8 10 14 14 17 11 11 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. 3. -1. -7. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 25. 24. 25. 20. 19. 13. 7. 5. -3. -15. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.9 50.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 14.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.92 8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 4.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.14 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.8% 45.2% 38.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.0% 39.2% 36.0% 14.0% 3.0% 17.9% 9.4% 5.1% Bayesian: 13.8% 2.9% 1.9% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.5% 29.1% 25.4% 5.5% 1.1% 6.0% 3.1% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/24/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 6( 8) 10( 17) 11( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 72 77 81 85 89 90 89 90 85 84 78 72 70 62 50 37 18HR AGO 65 64 69 73 77 81 82 81 82 77 76 70 64 62 54 42 29 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 69 73 74 73 74 69 68 62 56 54 46 34 21 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 59 63 64 63 64 59 58 52 46 44 36 24 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT