* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 67 74 79 80 81 85 82 81 80 74 66 54 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 59 67 74 79 80 81 85 82 81 80 74 66 54 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 58 66 75 79 79 79 80 78 75 73 64 53 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 5 8 7 10 6 10 8 11 4 5 13 24 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -6 -6 -3 -2 -3 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 252 265 274 189 196 172 168 130 170 146 152 151 71 356 320 357 17 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 25.7 21.0 23.2 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 126 126 128 128 126 127 129 131 131 129 129 115 85 97 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 101 102 102 104 104 103 104 106 108 108 106 111 105 77 86 82 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.8 -56.3 -56.3 -56.3 -56.9 -56.1 -56.1 -55.7 -56.0 -55.4 -54.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 55 56 53 48 43 42 45 45 44 41 44 55 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 13 15 17 18 18 19 21 20 21 21 20 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -69 -74 -68 -70 -67 -62 -64 -67 -57 -53 -63 -82 -131 -52 -127 -135 200 MB DIV -3 -1 -10 -11 -3 -27 -29 -15 11 8 -4 -10 -9 -22 39 4 14 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 23 22 LAND (KM) 1654 1652 1650 1670 1689 1749 1802 1818 1820 1779 1729 1647 1567 1190 809 1143 1387 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.1 32.1 32.0 31.8 31.3 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.8 31.2 31.9 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.1 49.9 49.6 49.4 49.2 48.9 49.0 49.4 50.0 50.7 51.4 52.0 52.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 12 23 18 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 12 12 10 10 12 13 14 16 14 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 9. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 29. 34. 35. 36. 40. 37. 36. 35. 30. 21. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.0 50.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.88 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 17.4% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 27.3% 22.4% 10.4% 3.3% 15.2% 6.1% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 15.1% 11.6% 3.5% 1.1% 9.3% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/24/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 52 56 59 67 74 79 80 81 85 82 81 80 74 66 54 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 55 63 70 75 76 77 81 78 77 76 70 62 50 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 56 63 68 69 70 74 71 70 69 63 55 43 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 46 53 58 59 60 64 61 60 59 53 45 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT