* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 51 54 61 68 77 79 83 88 88 89 87 81 72 61 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 51 54 61 68 77 79 83 88 88 89 87 81 72 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 50 54 61 69 77 79 79 80 80 79 77 69 60 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 3 6 7 7 5 2 5 4 5 4 12 25 36 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -2 -5 -8 -5 -2 -3 -3 0 4 3 1 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 232 254 260 267 195 227 224 322 95 259 214 239 312 3 337 352 2 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.1 25.5 24.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 127 126 126 126 127 126 126 126 127 127 130 129 111 108 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 104 103 104 105 104 103 103 103 104 104 114 117 95 96 86 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.6 -56.1 -56.6 -56.6 -56.7 -56.5 -56.7 -56.2 -55.8 -55.4 -55.5 -55.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 54 56 56 49 43 39 39 40 40 39 41 44 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 14 14 14 15 17 17 18 20 20 22 21 19 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -54 -64 -69 -64 -69 -71 -69 -78 -71 -66 -62 -54 -139 -143 -180 -138 200 MB DIV 5 6 -4 -12 1 -10 -45 -18 -4 17 12 5 -6 -18 32 -6 32 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 17 15 14 LAND (KM) 1659 1653 1647 1661 1676 1753 1825 1882 1914 1940 1927 1880 1845 1370 914 1056 1169 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.2 32.1 31.6 31.1 30.7 30.4 30.1 30.1 30.4 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.7 49.4 49.1 48.6 48.2 47.2 46.5 46.0 46.0 46.2 46.7 47.3 47.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 13 21 15 21 25 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 11. 8. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 6. 3. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 21. 28. 37. 39. 43. 48. 48. 49. 47. 41. 32. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 32.0 49.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.87 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.4% 10.7% 8.3% 7.2% 11.2% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 23.2% 16.3% 6.6% 2.1% 10.9% 8.9% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 12.9% 9.0% 5.0% 3.1% 7.3% 7.3% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/23/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 51 54 61 68 77 79 83 88 88 89 87 81 72 61 18HR AGO 40 39 42 47 50 57 64 73 75 79 84 84 85 83 77 68 57 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 44 51 58 67 69 73 78 78 79 77 71 62 51 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 40 47 56 58 62 67 67 68 66 60 51 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT