* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 107 108 109 108 107 106 100 95 91 84 72 68 57 55 53 V (KT) LAND 105 105 107 108 109 108 107 106 100 95 91 84 72 68 57 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 105 105 107 108 107 99 94 92 86 78 70 65 61 58 55 56 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 10 9 10 8 6 13 13 12 9 13 21 17 15 16 25 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 3 1 -2 0 1 4 -4 -4 1 7 0 4 18 26 SHEAR DIR 221 215 225 237 232 220 312 304 310 284 297 299 321 305 295 249 221 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 27.9 28.1 28.3 27.6 26.3 25.4 25.9 26.2 25.9 26.5 26.2 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 158 152 133 136 138 129 114 106 111 115 113 118 119 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 141 137 131 112 113 114 106 95 89 92 95 96 97 105 76 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -49.5 -49.5 -49.1 -49.4 -49.0 -49.8 -49.5 -50.0 -48.9 -47.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 8 7 7 6 7 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 65 67 65 61 61 58 55 58 62 64 62 62 64 61 61 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 37 39 41 42 43 45 47 46 46 47 46 42 43 39 39 44 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 56 48 57 73 82 81 78 87 81 68 63 78 84 143 185 200 MB DIV 105 74 60 37 45 61 29 33 26 10 8 -2 21 43 58 61 85 700-850 TADV 10 10 10 15 12 6 13 12 8 3 0 -1 6 0 5 63 72 LAND (KM) 557 625 693 730 731 672 571 490 417 357 322 349 411 565 519 515 228 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.2 29.5 30.5 31.4 32.3 33.3 34.3 35.3 36.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.2 72.4 72.6 72.7 72.8 73.0 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.0 72.6 71.9 71.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 8 12 8 21 36 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 50 47 35 18 24 26 16 1 0 1 12 1 14 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -21. -29. -37. -44. -50. -55. -59. -62. -64. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 11. 10. 11. 10. 4. 4. -3. -2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -5. -10. -14. -21. -33. -37. -48. -50. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 25.0 72.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 445.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 14.4% 10.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 3.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 5.9% 4.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/23/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 28( 62) 28( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 39 74( 84) 33( 89) 1( 89) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 107 108 109 108 107 106 100 95 91 84 72 68 57 55 53 18HR AGO 105 104 106 107 108 107 106 105 99 94 90 83 71 67 56 54 52 12HR AGO 105 102 101 102 103 102 101 100 94 89 85 78 66 62 51 49 47 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 96 95 94 93 87 82 78 71 59 55 44 42 40 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 85 84 83 77 72 68 61 49 45 34 32 30 IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 86 85 84 78 73 69 62 50 46 35 33 31 IN 12HR 105 105 107 98 92 88 87 86 80 75 71 64 52 48 37 35 33