* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 109 110 111 111 111 106 101 93 91 83 72 61 52 47 44 V (KT) LAND 110 108 109 110 111 111 111 106 101 93 91 83 72 61 52 47 44 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 110 110 111 109 99 91 85 80 73 65 59 55 52 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 14 6 9 8 5 15 18 18 12 16 19 28 15 19 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 0 0 1 -2 4 2 2 -5 -5 0 7 8 0 9 SHEAR DIR 223 220 211 211 241 269 239 327 305 318 285 341 334 339 344 333 326 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 28.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 26.7 26.2 25.9 26.7 26.7 26.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 163 165 163 147 131 129 128 128 119 113 113 122 119 119 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 144 145 143 125 110 108 106 105 98 93 95 103 97 100 102 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.1 -49.5 -49.6 -49.4 -49.2 -48.9 -49.1 -49.2 -50.2 -50.5 -50.0 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 66 64 60 57 57 59 62 64 65 64 59 54 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 38 39 40 44 45 45 46 46 48 46 42 39 36 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 41 33 32 36 35 45 62 80 78 83 84 78 47 27 46 64 58 200 MB DIV 118 85 96 90 83 76 32 28 10 24 25 -8 -6 3 9 27 31 700-850 TADV 12 12 10 15 11 10 3 9 12 15 5 -1 -4 -8 -29 19 -5 LAND (KM) 433 511 581 652 722 752 705 630 562 496 436 406 388 508 589 674 653 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.5 25.2 26.0 26.8 28.3 29.4 30.4 31.3 32.2 33.2 34.1 35.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.6 71.9 72.1 72.3 72.4 72.6 72.5 72.2 72.1 72.1 72.0 71.7 71.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 5 5 9 12 6 11 21 HEAT CONTENT 60 50 42 43 46 33 22 20 18 16 5 0 0 8 15 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -3. -11. -22. -31. -40. -46. -52. -57. -62. -65. -68. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -7. -8. -7. -3. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 12. 10. 4. -1. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -9. -17. -19. -27. -38. -49. -58. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 23.7 71.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 458.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 15.3% 10.9% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 12.4% 8.5% 4.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 9.4% 6.7% 4.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/23/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 29( 64) 29( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 15 24( 35) 66( 78) 17( 82) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 109 110 111 111 111 106 101 93 91 83 72 61 52 47 44 18HR AGO 110 109 110 111 112 112 112 107 102 94 92 84 73 62 53 48 45 12HR AGO 110 107 106 107 108 108 108 103 98 90 88 80 69 58 49 44 41 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 101 101 96 91 83 81 73 62 51 42 37 34 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 91 91 86 81 73 71 63 52 41 32 27 24 IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 90 90 85 80 72 70 62 51 40 31 26 23 IN 12HR 110 108 109 100 94 90 90 85 80 72 70 62 51 40 31 26 23