* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 106 104 105 104 104 103 101 94 94 88 79 70 63 55 52 V (KT) LAND 110 108 106 104 105 104 104 103 101 94 94 88 79 70 63 55 52 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 108 108 108 106 100 93 86 81 75 71 66 62 59 56 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 22 18 12 14 6 16 16 22 11 10 13 24 24 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 3 -3 -5 2 5 0 8 1 SHEAR DIR 236 225 223 216 218 242 259 289 314 303 280 306 345 312 324 333 332 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.4 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.2 26.7 26.4 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 159 161 163 157 136 129 128 124 122 122 115 120 117 120 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 142 142 143 135 116 109 107 103 101 100 97 100 96 101 102 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -49.8 -50.1 -49.4 -49.4 -49.2 -49.5 -50.0 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 66 66 61 60 57 61 59 64 64 63 58 56 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 35 36 39 41 42 44 46 46 48 47 43 41 40 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 25 29 29 37 51 76 88 99 98 92 73 54 74 90 105 200 MB DIV 111 94 67 67 78 75 79 18 51 28 57 -10 0 -5 38 -6 58 700-850 TADV 23 9 9 8 11 15 13 11 13 15 10 4 7 4 4 5 6 LAND (KM) 333 417 498 576 640 769 804 724 657 604 551 489 446 498 617 778 862 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.6 24.3 25.1 25.8 27.3 28.5 29.6 30.6 31.6 32.6 33.6 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.2 71.5 71.7 71.9 72.1 72.3 72.1 71.8 71.5 71.2 71.0 71.0 71.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 9 9 8 9 14 HEAT CONTENT 66 62 53 42 40 42 25 19 17 14 10 10 3 11 7 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -21. -30. -38. -45. -50. -55. -60. -64. -66. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -11. -12. -13. -10. -5. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 14. 17. 14. 9. 5. 2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -16. -16. -22. -31. -40. -47. -55. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.8 71.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 13.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 4.9% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.3% 4.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/22/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 27( 62) 26( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 4( 15) 35( 44) 9( 49) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 106 104 105 104 104 103 101 94 94 88 79 70 63 55 52 18HR AGO 110 109 107 105 106 105 105 104 102 95 95 89 80 71 64 56 53 12HR AGO 110 107 106 104 105 104 104 103 101 94 94 88 79 70 63 55 52 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 100 100 99 97 90 90 84 75 66 59 51 48 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 90 90 89 87 80 80 74 65 56 49 41 38 IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 88 88 87 85 78 78 72 63 54 47 39 36 IN 12HR 110 108 106 97 91 87 87 86 84 77 77 71 62 53 46 38 35