* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 102 102 100 95 98 98 102 101 96 95 92 91 87 84 76 V (KT) LAND 100 101 102 102 100 95 98 98 102 101 96 95 92 91 87 84 76 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 103 103 102 100 101 101 97 90 83 78 75 74 74 69 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 14 13 11 15 15 19 12 16 6 16 13 24 18 25 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 8 10 3 1 0 3 1 5 5 0 -1 -6 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 252 281 281 251 251 226 231 209 241 233 274 280 275 232 233 203 236 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 28.9 27.7 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.3 26.4 25.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 159 157 159 161 165 167 149 131 124 123 121 125 116 108 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 146 143 144 145 147 146 128 112 105 103 100 102 97 91 93 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -50.1 -50.4 -49.4 -49.7 -49.2 -48.9 -49.0 -49.1 -49.8 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.3 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 5 4 700-500 MB RH 52 52 55 58 60 65 61 63 59 60 55 60 60 67 64 58 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 31 30 31 38 37 41 42 41 43 44 47 48 49 46 850 MB ENV VOR 48 46 58 67 51 44 41 42 56 74 89 101 118 132 148 135 119 200 MB DIV 19 22 62 41 39 101 84 101 37 51 18 50 22 73 81 43 -18 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -3 6 16 7 10 12 7 15 11 21 6 12 3 -2 LAND (KM) 90 89 109 156 217 356 521 669 799 793 692 618 573 671 584 546 563 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.5 21.1 21.7 23.0 24.5 26.0 27.5 28.8 30.1 31.4 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.1 68.7 69.3 69.8 70.3 71.0 71.6 71.9 72.0 71.9 71.6 71.2 70.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 52 55 60 72 75 53 40 36 32 22 15 11 19 6 2 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -13. -19. -24. -28. -33. -38. -41. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -4. -2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 6. 6. 11. 11. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -2. -2. 2. 1. -4. -5. -8. -9. -13. -16. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.4 68.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 649.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 14.4% 10.5% 8.1% 7.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 4.0% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 8.8% 4.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 7.7% 5.2% 3.4% 3.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/21/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 24( 41) 22( 54) 17( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 46 53( 75) 22( 80) 27( 86) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 102 102 100 95 98 98 102 101 96 95 92 91 87 84 76 18HR AGO 100 99 100 100 98 93 96 96 100 99 94 93 90 89 85 82 74 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 94 89 92 92 96 95 90 89 86 85 81 78 70 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 83 86 86 90 89 84 83 80 79 75 72 64 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 76 79 79 83 82 77 76 73 72 68 65 57 IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 79 82 82 86 85 80 79 76 75 71 68 60 IN 12HR 100 101 102 93 87 83 86 86 90 89 84 83 80 79 75 72 64