* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 125 128 127 124 116 114 117 120 120 115 107 102 97 93 85 V (KT) LAND 125 131 134 137 136 132 125 123 125 129 129 124 116 111 106 102 93 V (KT) LGEM 125 127 121 119 118 117 116 113 112 110 101 89 80 76 72 69 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 3 5 9 9 14 10 9 13 9 12 14 13 13 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 4 6 7 7 4 2 3 8 4 9 5 -2 -8 -1 SHEAR DIR 275 6 189 277 292 256 248 212 230 225 247 246 292 276 249 216 254 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.0 28.0 27.9 26.9 26.8 27.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 163 165 163 161 161 163 163 165 151 136 135 122 121 126 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 154 152 153 150 146 146 145 144 144 130 116 114 102 102 105 91 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.0 -49.1 -48.8 -48.5 -48.4 -48.1 -48.3 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 8 6 6 3 700-500 MB RH 55 56 54 51 54 57 61 64 64 63 61 58 60 62 64 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 31 31 31 34 36 39 42 47 47 46 45 46 47 46 42 850 MB ENV VOR 50 57 63 50 55 65 52 80 63 77 80 74 72 59 91 128 107 200 MB DIV 35 44 39 9 19 50 65 110 78 56 52 30 33 72 72 54 9 700-850 TADV 10 6 4 -1 2 2 17 11 15 14 18 16 24 18 9 2 2 LAND (KM) -22 22 88 99 91 153 278 419 557 680 692 633 484 500 422 337 333 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.1 21.1 22.3 23.6 25.1 26.6 28.2 29.8 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.1 66.9 67.6 68.3 69.0 70.1 71.1 71.8 72.4 72.9 73.2 73.2 73.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 61 54 55 58 57 62 66 62 45 50 37 26 20 12 6 28 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -11. -21. -29. -36. -42. -46. -52. -58. -63. -66. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 18. 16. 13. 13. 13. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. 0. 3. 2. -1. -9. -11. -8. -5. -5. -10. -18. -23. -28. -32. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.2 66.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 1.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 845.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 7.3% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.8% 1.9% 1.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 3.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/20/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 48( 48) 49( 73) 45( 85) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 93( 93) 85( 99) 80(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 131 134 137 136 132 125 123 125 129 129 124 116 111 106 102 93 18HR AGO 125 124 127 130 129 125 118 116 118 122 122 117 109 104 99 95 86 12HR AGO 125 122 121 124 123 119 112 110 112 116 116 111 103 98 93 89 80 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 114 110 103 101 103 107 107 102 94 89 84 80 71 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 102 95 93 95 99 99 94 86 81 76 72 63 IN 6HR 125 131 122 116 113 111 104 102 104 108 108 103 95 90 85 81 72 IN 12HR 125 131 134 125 119 115 108 106 108 112 112 107 99 94 89 85 76