* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 64 62 57 53 49 44 37 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 64 62 57 53 49 44 37 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 62 59 54 51 50 50 49 47 43 38 35 32 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 17 16 13 17 13 12 13 20 25 35 29 45 50 53 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 -4 -5 -5 -9 -4 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 213 208 216 224 228 232 221 264 258 289 289 298 294 267 257 263 246 SST (C) 27.0 25.9 24.7 23.5 22.5 22.6 24.1 25.2 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.7 25.1 23.4 21.9 21.1 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 112 102 93 87 87 94 102 101 102 100 98 104 94 83 78 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 93 85 79 75 73 77 82 82 82 81 80 87 81 72 67 69 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 5 4 2 0 1 1 4 3 5 3 6 2 3 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 51 49 42 41 42 44 46 44 45 51 47 47 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 38 37 38 37 35 34 30 28 26 23 20 16 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 71 58 56 65 64 24 24 27 13 -2 -43 -80 -57 3 45 51 77 200 MB DIV 37 54 63 51 31 -4 4 3 -13 -17 -40 -52 12 8 43 17 40 700-850 TADV 5 1 2 2 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 2 0 0 -3 4 -4 -40 LAND (KM) 357 363 337 313 284 285 325 362 383 406 417 415 429 268 99 124 100 LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.6 38.2 38.7 39.2 39.6 39.5 39.2 38.9 38.6 38.4 38.3 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.5 71.0 70.5 69.8 69.2 68.0 67.4 67.2 67.3 67.4 67.6 67.9 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 7 10 4 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -18. -22. -25. -28. -31. -34. -36. -38. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -7. -11. -17. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -19. -24. -29. -35. -38. -40. -39. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -21. -28. -36. -47. -56. -63. -72. -79. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.9 71.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 64 62 57 53 49 44 37 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 64 63 61 56 52 48 43 36 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 58 53 49 45 40 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 48 44 40 35 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT