* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 141 142 143 140 132 127 122 112 109 102 106 106 106 106 103 99 V (KT) LAND 135 141 142 143 140 116 122 117 107 104 97 101 101 101 101 98 93 V (KT) LGEM 135 140 141 138 134 109 116 112 106 103 100 98 99 97 92 86 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 3 5 12 5 12 14 9 11 8 12 16 15 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 4 3 4 3 5 7 7 6 6 2 4 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 153 63 37 11 300 344 3 298 275 270 245 255 268 269 278 298 286 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.7 29.4 29.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 160 156 151 153 149 151 152 147 146 157 164 151 151 150 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 154 152 147 142 142 138 138 138 132 129 138 145 131 126 123 121 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -50.1 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -49.4 -49.5 -48.7 -48.8 -48.4 -48.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 58 58 58 56 60 62 67 65 68 63 63 54 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 28 30 31 31 32 35 34 38 38 44 44 45 47 49 48 850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 33 42 46 53 55 61 49 60 60 69 73 63 53 59 67 200 MB DIV 104 93 102 48 22 -6 18 73 23 105 81 116 53 58 15 32 11 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 2 5 6 3 6 9 18 8 15 19 12 9 5 2 LAND (KM) 490 399 307 218 128 -11 98 102 164 278 419 542 654 873 684 651 584 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.3 23.6 24.9 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.9 62.6 63.4 64.1 64.8 66.2 67.6 69.0 70.1 71.1 71.8 72.3 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 5 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 58 62 67 64 52 49 51 63 63 62 45 48 45 38 37 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 0. -2. -8. -18. -31. -41. -51. -58. -62. -64. -68. -71. -74. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 6. 11. 10. 18. 16. 16. 17. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 8. 5. -3. -8. -13. -23. -26. -33. -29. -29. -29. -29. -32. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.8 61.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 723.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.5% 13.4% 10.7% 6.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 40.7% 5.8% 19.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.4% 6.4% 10.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/19/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 59( 79) 54( 90) 0( 90) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 98 98(100) 99(100) 0(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 141 142 143 140 116 122 117 107 104 97 101 101 101 101 98 93 18HR AGO 135 134 135 136 133 109 115 110 100 97 90 94 94 94 94 91 86 12HR AGO 135 132 131 132 129 105 111 106 96 93 86 90 90 90 90 87 82 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 122 98 104 99 89 86 79 83 83 83 83 80 75 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 92 98 93 83 80 73 77 77 77 77 74 69 IN 6HR 135 141 132 126 123 100 106 101 91 88 81 85 85 85 85 82 77 IN 12HR 135 141 142 133 127 123 129 124 114 111 104 108 108 108 108 105 100