* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 62 61 59 54 49 46 41 37 34 28 26 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 62 61 59 54 49 46 41 37 34 28 26 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 64 63 57 52 49 48 49 50 50 48 46 43 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 17 21 22 17 14 23 14 11 13 19 19 26 12 27 26 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 0 -4 -6 -3 2 -5 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -4 4 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 237 226 206 210 210 201 238 220 258 262 269 272 283 272 278 275 298 SST (C) 27.0 27.5 27.0 25.6 24.1 21.9 22.2 23.7 25.0 25.2 24.8 25.0 25.5 27.5 26.8 24.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 129 123 109 97 84 84 92 101 103 99 101 106 127 119 98 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 106 101 91 82 73 72 76 82 83 81 82 86 99 95 82 81 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -51.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 3 5 3 3 0 2 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 56 55 53 52 49 42 38 37 39 39 39 43 44 41 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 37 39 38 39 36 34 33 30 29 28 27 27 23 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 60 59 63 62 54 68 30 29 40 23 14 -13 -27 -31 -71 -76 -84 200 MB DIV 5 23 54 42 43 36 0 0 13 -20 -8 -53 -51 -26 -2 -31 -9 700-850 TADV 14 6 2 2 1 2 0 -3 0 1 0 1 0 0 -8 0 1 LAND (KM) 391 406 378 368 313 254 271 311 353 392 407 425 434 483 439 539 484 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.4 37.1 37.8 38.5 39.5 39.7 39.6 39.3 38.8 38.5 38.2 38.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.3 71.1 70.7 70.3 69.1 68.1 67.5 67.2 67.3 67.6 67.9 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 8 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 4 8 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 46 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. -25. -29. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -19. -24. -28. -31. -37. -39. -46. -52. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 35.6 71.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 12.3% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/19/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 62 61 59 54 49 46 41 37 34 28 26 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 62 61 59 54 49 46 41 37 34 28 26 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 59 57 52 47 44 39 35 32 26 24 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 52 47 42 39 34 30 27 21 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT