* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 63 61 61 61 57 52 46 41 35 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 63 61 61 61 57 52 46 41 35 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 64 64 64 63 59 53 49 47 47 47 46 45 42 40 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 30 21 20 19 14 20 13 12 6 14 16 22 11 19 12 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -2 -4 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 0 -4 -2 0 -3 -4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 222 232 226 206 208 209 227 229 245 266 283 301 278 299 266 249 273 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 27.4 27.2 25.5 22.9 22.0 22.7 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.3 25.9 24.7 26.1 22.6 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 128 126 108 89 84 86 92 94 95 96 108 98 111 87 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 102 105 103 89 76 72 73 76 77 78 79 87 80 89 75 69 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 5 2 1 0 2 1 3 2 3 1 2 700-500 MB RH 54 55 56 56 53 52 45 41 39 42 44 42 42 45 48 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 38 37 38 38 36 33 30 28 25 22 20 16 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 71 61 69 67 63 69 52 28 28 35 8 -24 -54 -67 -78 -123 -131 200 MB DIV 35 2 27 64 58 53 31 9 16 -25 -27 -50 -31 -70 -26 -3 14 700-850 TADV 16 16 9 2 2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 404 396 402 385 361 289 262 290 319 341 369 395 437 387 414 293 206 LAT (DEG N) 34.8 35.6 36.3 37.1 37.8 39.0 39.5 39.6 39.5 39.2 38.8 38.4 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.3 71.3 71.0 70.8 69.8 68.8 67.9 67.5 67.6 67.8 68.2 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 2 2 3 2 1 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 43 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -30. -32. -36. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -21. -26. -30. -33. -35. -37. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -30. -37. -43. -50. -55. -58. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 34.8 71.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.83 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/19/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 63 61 61 61 57 52 46 41 35 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 64 62 62 62 58 53 47 42 36 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 59 59 55 50 44 39 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 55 51 46 40 35 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT