* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 34 30 26 22 21 22 24 25 26 27 27 27 25 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 36 34 30 26 22 21 22 24 25 26 27 27 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 32 28 25 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 2 3 4 4 6 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 8 7 2 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 32 184 282 290 295 324 270 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 25.8 25.1 24.2 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 133 129 126 119 111 102 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 37 34 35 32 29 27 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -5 -3 -4 -5 6 9 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -30 -21 -15 -18 -26 -20 -25 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 0 0 0 -1 -6 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 307 348 380 383 393 413 397 385 312 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.6 114.1 114.5 115.4 115.8 116.0 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -19. -18. -16. -15. -14. -13. -13. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.4 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.12 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 17.1% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##