* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 48 39 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 48 39 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 47 38 32 28 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 10 9 8 11 12 12 2 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 7 6 1 5 6 6 1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 222 183 169 178 140 129 147 206 163 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.4 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.6 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 111 112 112 115 124 130 135 140 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 48 47 49 51 51 51 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 3 10 3 3 -2 1 13 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 36 49 48 38 43 25 13 2 21 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1606 1600 1595 1623 1651 1752 1899 2062 2242 2233 2107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.3 18.8 18.0 17.1 16.2 15.3 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.4 127.6 127.7 128.0 128.3 129.1 130.2 131.4 132.8 134.2 135.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 3 4 6 7 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -9. -14. -16. -16. -13. -9. -7. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -16. -16. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -12. -21. -28. -33. -38. -42. -46. -46. -42. -42. -41. -41. -39. -38. -37. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.9 127.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 475.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##