* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 88 94 98 103 103 106 106 103 97 95 95 98 100 97 96 V (KT) LAND 75 81 88 94 98 103 103 106 93 96 90 88 87 90 92 90 88 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 86 90 95 102 110 112 98 100 100 101 104 102 97 94 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 1 2 1 6 1 9 7 11 8 14 9 16 10 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 3 7 4 6 2 -3 5 2 8 4 0 3 10 4 SHEAR DIR 250 294 281 118 156 272 235 311 332 317 271 273 260 261 261 287 276 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.8 29.9 29.1 29.6 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 158 159 163 161 152 157 154 156 165 168 153 161 165 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 151 152 153 154 152 141 146 143 143 151 156 137 141 143 138 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.0 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 64 63 65 62 63 64 65 67 66 71 72 71 71 69 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 25 24 24 26 26 30 31 32 31 33 35 39 42 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 13 22 25 28 45 49 59 58 72 68 84 50 71 76 90 200 MB DIV 60 72 82 103 62 56 70 39 34 57 106 79 77 60 58 51 52 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 -2 -2 1 2 5 1 2 6 17 13 14 16 21 19 LAND (KM) 482 458 456 482 523 412 254 93 -13 62 35 83 189 511 576 690 738 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.8 59.7 60.4 61.2 62.5 63.8 65.2 66.5 67.8 69.1 70.4 71.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 10 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 66 59 58 60 63 60 68 66 62 52 52 62 68 65 43 49 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 7. 5. 8. 9. 14. 16. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 23. 28. 28. 31. 31. 28. 22. 20. 20. 23. 25. 22. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.0 58.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 346.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.8% 52.7% 41.4% 32.9% 26.7% 33.0% 25.1% 19.5% Logistic: 26.8% 52.9% 36.5% 38.2% 28.0% 42.2% 38.5% 26.5% Bayesian: 32.9% 81.9% 64.5% 30.6% 25.9% 59.5% 54.8% 8.2% Consensus: 30.2% 62.5% 47.5% 33.9% 26.9% 44.9% 39.5% 18.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/18/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 11( 15) 21( 33) 25( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 44( 51) 59( 80) 52( 90) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 88 94 98 103 103 106 93 96 90 88 87 90 92 90 88 18HR AGO 75 74 81 87 91 96 96 99 86 89 83 81 80 83 85 83 81 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 81 86 86 89 76 79 73 71 70 73 75 73 71 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 74 74 77 64 67 61 59 58 61 63 61 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 88 79 73 69 69 72 59 62 56 54 53 56 58 56 54