* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 78 76 74 70 68 69 62 54 46 43 43 45 46 43 39 V (KT) LAND 80 80 78 76 74 70 68 69 62 54 46 43 43 45 46 43 39 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 82 81 78 71 66 61 54 50 47 49 51 55 54 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 31 35 34 34 32 19 21 18 23 15 8 6 10 6 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 4 4 -1 1 0 0 -5 -1 1 -1 -3 -2 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 250 233 227 228 228 220 217 195 222 219 215 238 310 239 197 244 245 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.7 24.4 22.2 21.5 24.2 26.7 25.4 24.6 21.9 23.2 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 138 134 129 127 132 99 86 82 97 119 106 104 84 89 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 120 116 112 107 105 108 84 74 72 81 94 87 90 73 74 74 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -52.9 -53.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.1 1.5 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 6 4 4 3 4 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 59 58 55 57 54 49 37 30 31 37 32 31 29 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 34 35 37 38 38 39 36 34 30 29 29 29 31 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 64 72 65 73 62 77 95 39 31 16 5 -11 5 -32 -52 200 MB DIV 52 55 67 72 49 36 52 59 64 28 31 4 -10 -21 -30 -26 -7 700-850 TADV 13 17 19 23 19 12 10 0 2 -4 -5 -3 -2 2 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 631 575 526 479 433 379 389 340 274 238 298 378 389 405 187 303 264 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.4 32.1 32.9 33.6 35.1 36.6 38.1 39.2 39.9 40.2 40.1 40.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.9 71.8 71.8 71.7 71.7 71.6 71.3 70.7 69.7 68.4 67.0 65.7 64.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 15 5 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 27 23 17 8 8 48 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -20. -27. -32. -36. -39. -42. -45. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -12. -17. -17. -16. -15. -14. -12. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 3. -0. -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -11. -18. -26. -34. -37. -37. -35. -34. -37. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.6 71.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 454.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 9.4% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 1.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 3.8% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 5( 17) 4( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 78 76 74 70 68 69 62 54 46 43 43 45 46 43 39 18HR AGO 80 79 77 75 73 69 67 68 61 53 45 42 42 44 45 42 38 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 72 68 66 67 60 52 44 41 41 43 44 41 37 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 64 62 63 56 48 40 37 37 39 40 37 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT