* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 54 55 53 48 42 38 34 32 31 32 34 36 38 41 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 54 55 53 48 42 38 34 32 31 32 34 36 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 55 55 51 44 38 32 27 24 21 20 19 19 20 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 6 8 4 8 11 15 17 16 5 8 4 5 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -1 -1 2 6 3 3 4 3 7 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 189 256 239 217 233 198 132 110 119 118 145 153 146 189 184 231 162 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.6 28.2 27.9 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 132 129 127 122 119 119 122 128 132 136 141 146 141 140 145 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 52 51 52 55 51 48 46 45 41 41 47 44 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 9 8 6 5 5 4 3 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 -1 -3 8 7 7 -1 0 -2 7 21 41 33 38 30 29 200 MB DIV -7 24 23 26 49 47 69 50 56 18 15 7 9 23 16 -7 -29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1831 1818 1805 1780 1757 1719 1721 1753 1848 1989 2143 2254 2104 1866 1790 1639 1498 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.2 18.2 17.9 17.3 16.9 16.5 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.4 127.6 127.7 127.8 127.8 127.9 128.2 128.6 129.5 130.7 132.2 133.7 135.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 3 6 7 7 7 11 8 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 4 6 6 10 15 11 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 3. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -11. -9. -7. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 127.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.81 7.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.8% 34.2% 28.9% 20.5% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.9% 26.0% 22.0% 7.0% 9.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 20.2% 17.0% 9.2% 7.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##