* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 76 81 89 95 100 102 103 99 97 92 91 94 95 92 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 76 81 89 95 100 102 103 90 89 84 83 85 87 84 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 68 74 79 87 98 109 119 116 92 102 99 97 95 92 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 2 2 7 10 7 5 5 10 7 9 10 16 21 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 10 5 -1 0 4 4 3 1 3 6 -1 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 236 255 325 311 329 24 23 41 305 3 324 334 267 283 268 233 249 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.5 29.0 29.0 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 153 153 156 159 163 158 154 156 152 159 150 151 161 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 156 152 150 149 150 151 155 149 144 144 140 145 135 137 145 145 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 62 62 62 63 61 61 61 60 63 66 72 69 69 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 22 23 24 26 27 30 28 29 27 27 31 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 14 6 9 15 16 14 29 33 36 45 50 48 45 34 24 49 46 200 MB DIV 75 67 72 78 93 61 25 62 36 40 22 74 53 73 44 102 57 700-850 TADV 5 6 1 0 0 -4 -2 2 3 0 -1 0 10 13 9 11 18 LAND (KM) 745 664 579 525 487 482 546 388 212 40 0 59 46 210 325 388 513 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.5 19.2 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.3 55.4 56.5 57.4 58.3 59.9 61.3 62.7 64.2 65.7 67.0 68.3 69.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 54 65 62 58 62 60 68 66 54 52 55 68 75 55 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 8. 9. 5. 5. 8. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 26. 35. 40. 45. 47. 48. 44. 42. 37. 36. 39. 40. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.8 54.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 4.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 5.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.3% 57.3% 42.5% 29.4% 22.8% 46.5% 50.9% 42.2% Logistic: 27.5% 60.2% 45.6% 36.6% 21.4% 33.4% 25.3% 18.3% Bayesian: 20.6% 81.2% 58.2% 6.0% 14.9% 48.3% 45.3% 18.1% Consensus: 24.1% 66.2% 48.8% 24.0% 19.7% 42.7% 40.5% 26.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 8( 11) 11( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 15( 15) 28( 39) 29( 57) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 69 76 81 89 95 100 102 103 90 89 84 83 85 87 84 18HR AGO 55 54 61 68 73 81 87 92 94 95 82 81 76 75 77 79 76 12HR AGO 55 52 51 58 63 71 77 82 84 85 72 71 66 65 67 69 66 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 58 64 69 71 72 59 58 53 52 54 56 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT