* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 54 55 56 57 58 57 55 55 51 48 44 45 44 44 46 V (KT) LAND 55 53 54 55 56 57 58 57 55 55 51 48 44 45 44 44 38 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 52 51 51 49 47 44 42 40 37 34 32 32 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 9 8 5 8 6 7 5 8 14 8 6 10 13 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 4 2 5 3 7 5 7 3 5 -3 0 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 185 180 205 222 201 192 228 224 276 286 321 315 294 200 173 202 201 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 26.8 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 26.5 28.4 28.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 149 146 144 139 128 121 116 115 116 116 127 146 150 158 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 53 49 48 49 43 41 37 38 33 35 34 30 29 32 32 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 22 23 24 21 21 19 17 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 28 23 24 19 9 15 7 8 13 26 28 30 35 62 64 200 MB DIV 39 30 17 8 12 -12 -18 -15 -5 11 -14 -33 -36 -1 3 7 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -4 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -8 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 378 335 292 235 182 146 141 152 129 123 97 75 52 92 113 32 0 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.7 111.2 111.7 112.3 112.7 113.0 113.0 112.9 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 6 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 10 9 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 11 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. -4. -7. -11. -10. -11. -11. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.5 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 23.6% 19.3% 14.1% 10.5% 12.5% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.3% 6.7% 4.8% 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##