* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 38 38 37 35 35 32 30 31 34 36 39 43 46 48 V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 38 38 37 35 35 32 30 31 34 36 39 43 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 39 36 33 29 25 23 22 23 25 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 11 13 23 34 29 30 25 14 9 20 17 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 3 -3 5 7 4 2 0 4 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 346 327 297 285 286 293 289 280 287 276 356 9 14 356 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 130 132 133 138 131 131 135 135 136 138 138 134 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 122 124 126 128 134 126 125 127 127 127 129 129 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 55 55 52 51 59 61 57 54 55 51 55 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -13 -17 -11 -7 -18 -33 -25 -17 0 17 18 8 10 -24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 3 -11 -23 -26 -2 -2 71 71 46 41 -7 -6 3 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 -1 -4 -3 3 7 5 5 6 7 6 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1787 1825 1803 1799 1798 1783 1695 1619 1569 1519 1487 1457 1384 1755 1726 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.4 14.3 15.2 16.1 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.9 34.5 35.2 35.8 36.5 38.0 39.8 41.8 43.7 45.5 47.3 49.1 50.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 13 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 9 10 18 30 20 29 32 20 15 20 27 32 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -22. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -3. -5. -4. -1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.6 33.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.3% 9.1% 6.8% 5.8% 8.3% 8.1% 9.3% Logistic: 5.9% 12.3% 10.8% 2.7% 0.7% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.7% 6.8% 3.2% 2.1% 3.7% 3.2% 3.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 37 38 38 37 35 35 32 30 31 34 36 39 43 46 48 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 35 34 32 32 29 27 28 31 33 36 40 43 45 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 31 29 29 26 24 25 28 30 33 37 40 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 22 22 19 17 18 21 23 26 30 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT