* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 72 71 70 69 70 73 73 70 61 57 51 45 43 46 55 V (KT) LAND 70 70 72 71 70 69 70 73 73 70 61 57 51 45 43 46 55 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 71 73 73 72 69 65 61 54 50 50 48 48 50 56 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 27 24 32 37 34 32 19 17 15 15 13 16 25 28 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 5 9 4 1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -4 -1 -1 3 3 13 SHEAR DIR 283 274 266 253 237 234 218 236 207 223 202 240 246 266 247 271 292 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 22.7 21.9 22.6 21.2 23.2 25.4 24.6 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 161 155 147 136 122 122 122 90 86 90 83 91 107 105 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 135 131 124 114 102 101 101 78 76 78 74 77 89 93 80 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -53.6 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 2 4 3 1 0 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 57 59 58 54 53 56 53 51 44 31 31 20 13 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 32 31 32 35 38 42 42 41 37 35 32 29 29 32 44 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 48 58 60 78 81 69 71 77 103 86 71 59 40 92 -24 200 MB DIV 99 72 36 30 68 58 97 22 55 59 40 46 19 14 -25 -33 -48 700-850 TADV 12 9 15 12 17 32 12 17 9 3 2 -3 -2 3 -12 -43 -89 LAND (KM) 807 750 695 637 583 479 401 391 381 274 244 306 374 521 635 792 623 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.2 29.8 30.5 31.2 32.8 34.4 36.0 37.6 39.2 40.3 40.8 41.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 71.9 71.8 71.6 71.4 70.7 69.7 67.7 64.8 61.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 6 8 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 39 37 31 19 3 18 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -12. -12. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 13. 11. 5. 2. -3. -7. -8. -4. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 3. 3. -0. -9. -13. -19. -25. -27. -24. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.6 72.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.19 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 490.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 12.5% 8.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 3.4% 2.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.3% 3.6% 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 72 71 70 69 70 73 73 70 61 57 51 45 43 46 55 18HR AGO 70 69 71 70 69 68 69 72 72 69 60 56 50 44 42 45 54 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 64 63 64 67 67 64 55 51 45 39 37 40 49 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 58 59 62 62 59 50 46 40 34 32 35 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT