* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 73 73 73 75 79 79 74 68 60 52 47 47 50 56 V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 73 73 73 75 79 79 74 68 60 52 47 47 50 56 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 74 75 76 76 72 67 62 57 52 49 46 47 52 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 24 28 28 34 30 28 18 15 10 13 10 15 19 38 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 4 2 4 2 -3 -2 -1 -5 -1 -3 1 8 9 24 SHEAR DIR 284 275 269 264 249 229 217 232 230 194 192 213 242 251 262 245 231 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.1 26.6 26.7 27.2 22.9 20.3 18.5 17.7 21.1 23.7 14.9 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 162 162 157 137 119 120 126 91 79 74 74 84 100 75 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 136 136 132 115 100 99 104 78 70 68 68 75 90 72 76 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -54.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 9 9 9 7 6 3 3 2 3 1 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 56 58 57 58 53 56 55 55 45 33 32 31 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 29 28 30 31 35 38 41 41 39 37 34 30 27 27 33 45 850 MB ENV VOR 19 33 41 46 64 76 86 76 75 79 94 70 61 49 91 176 333 200 MB DIV 59 88 60 19 39 64 77 46 52 32 66 30 22 50 24 44 30 700-850 TADV 13 18 12 24 14 28 16 13 18 1 4 0 -5 0 3 -19 23 LAND (KM) 804 749 686 629 575 468 379 347 346 252 170 211 190 368 495 546 791 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.3 30.9 32.4 34.0 35.5 37.1 38.9 40.2 41.0 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.1 72.3 72.5 72.5 72.4 72.3 72.1 71.9 71.5 70.9 69.5 67.6 65.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 12 13 24 32 27 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 41 40 37 21 1 5 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -23. -28. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. -11. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 15. 13. 9. 4. -2. -7. -7. 0. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 9. 9. 4. -2. -10. -18. -23. -23. -20. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.5 72.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 12.8% 9.1% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.5% 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.5% 3.7% 3.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 4( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 72 73 73 73 75 79 79 74 68 60 52 47 47 50 56 18HR AGO 70 69 69 70 70 70 72 76 76 71 65 57 49 44 44 47 53 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 67 67 69 73 73 68 62 54 46 41 41 44 50 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 60 62 66 66 61 55 47 39 34 34 37 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT