* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 75 77 79 76 73 65 62 57 55 53 52 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 75 77 79 76 73 65 62 57 42 35 35 34 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 73 74 74 72 66 60 55 51 39 33 34 34 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 9 9 6 8 5 10 8 8 11 7 8 11 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 0 1 3 7 4 6 11 9 10 5 3 7 2 SHEAR DIR 178 172 164 177 196 136 195 184 220 280 277 298 299 149 177 148 189 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.1 26.2 27.5 29.3 26.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 150 150 144 142 136 125 120 122 136 155 124 146 147 148 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 52 48 47 39 38 34 33 32 33 32 26 27 28 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 24 24 24 21 21 17 17 14 13 10 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 22 26 36 26 20 18 17 15 9 20 46 36 59 44 64 200 MB DIV 44 49 61 49 7 11 -6 -16 -1 0 12 -17 -25 -6 -15 -5 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 434 401 369 326 285 196 166 139 106 56 8 -40 -20 91 128 91 57 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.4 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.2 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.5 110.6 111.0 111.5 111.9 112.3 112.4 112.2 111.7 111.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 5 6 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 7 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 12 12 7 7 5 1 0 0 4 20 0 8 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 1. -5. -5. -10. -10. -13. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 11. 8. -0. -2. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -12. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.0 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 449.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 8.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.4% 35.7% 35.3% 25.8% 19.7% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 13.0% 12.5% 9.0% 6.8% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##