* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 72 71 72 74 78 80 77 71 61 54 47 42 41 50 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 72 71 72 74 78 80 77 71 61 54 47 42 41 50 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 74 75 76 74 71 65 59 55 50 46 46 49 57 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 21 26 26 26 34 29 30 18 19 17 10 11 12 17 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 3 3 7 2 1 -5 0 -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 11 SHEAR DIR 295 290 278 275 270 235 234 216 241 208 230 217 241 244 262 238 226 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.1 28.0 26.6 26.5 27.7 24.1 20.7 17.9 20.6 24.1 23.5 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 161 161 162 152 135 118 117 132 98 81 73 82 101 100 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 136 136 137 127 113 98 97 108 84 72 67 73 89 91 74 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 -53.0 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 3 5 2 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 57 58 60 58 59 58 58 55 50 38 38 42 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 29 28 28 32 34 39 41 39 36 31 28 24 22 21 33 850 MB ENV VOR -9 6 24 34 37 68 73 79 72 77 76 61 17 16 31 88 180 200 MB DIV 56 59 65 48 22 75 80 100 17 68 49 41 36 37 3 7 26 700-850 TADV 2 10 13 9 22 16 27 12 23 8 14 -4 1 -7 -7 -27 -52 LAND (KM) 838 806 778 720 653 550 454 376 349 368 320 181 138 266 436 719 610 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.1 28.6 29.3 29.9 31.2 32.6 33.9 35.3 36.7 38.3 40.1 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.6 72.0 72.4 72.5 72.6 72.4 72.3 72.2 71.9 71.5 70.7 69.5 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 12 18 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 38 40 41 33 19 1 1 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 8. 14. 18. 15. 10. 3. -2. -8. -11. -12. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 7. 1. -9. -16. -23. -28. -29. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 27.6 71.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 482.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 11.9% 8.5% 7.1% 6.8% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.0% 1.8% 2.1% 1.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.3% 3.4% 3.1% 2.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 4( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 72 72 71 72 74 78 80 77 71 61 54 47 42 41 50 18HR AGO 70 69 70 70 69 70 72 76 78 75 69 59 52 45 40 39 48 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 65 66 68 72 74 71 65 55 48 41 36 35 44 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 60 62 66 68 65 59 49 42 35 30 29 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT