* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 38 39 42 41 38 34 33 31 33 33 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 38 39 42 41 38 34 33 31 33 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 31 28 26 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 2 3 3 6 6 3 12 18 15 17 8 5 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 -1 3 1 6 2 0 4 3 3 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 63 65 15 33 135 144 149 172 128 99 115 138 140 156 162 247 283 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.5 26.9 26.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 142 142 143 141 135 130 128 129 126 125 128 132 131 135 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 51 52 53 50 47 47 46 44 42 39 44 43 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 11 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -9 -11 -14 -14 -8 -28 -8 2 8 7 3 18 23 23 27 19 200 MB DIV -39 -41 -32 -27 -31 13 20 19 29 8 19 17 0 3 7 1 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 0 1 3 1 3 2 2 LAND (KM) 1670 1691 1711 1716 1721 1706 1664 1607 1581 1588 1642 1738 1842 2024 2161 2164 2046 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.3 125.5 125.7 125.8 125.9 126.1 126.1 126.0 126.2 126.6 127.4 128.5 129.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 3 5 5 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 7 4 3 3 2 1 5 6 5 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -0. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 12. 11. 8. 4. 3. 1. 3. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 125.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% Logistic: 2.2% 17.0% 6.1% 2.8% 1.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 5.7% 2.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##