* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 70 70 72 76 79 81 78 74 64 53 44 37 37 35 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 70 70 72 76 79 81 78 74 64 53 44 37 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 71 73 76 77 73 66 60 56 50 46 44 44 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 23 20 23 26 34 32 32 22 24 15 19 14 12 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 1 4 4 2 -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 287 297 294 283 271 253 234 226 224 226 213 226 225 226 246 268 277 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.3 27.0 26.1 27.0 26.7 22.4 18.2 20.0 20.8 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 162 160 160 155 139 123 113 123 120 88 75 80 80 106 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 138 135 135 130 116 102 94 102 99 77 69 72 71 89 88 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -52.3 -53.6 -55.0 -55.6 -55.8 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 5 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 54 55 58 58 58 58 57 60 58 58 55 56 45 36 35 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 29 28 32 36 39 42 41 39 34 29 24 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -11 7 27 34 58 60 82 85 92 105 82 50 50 16 0 -19 200 MB DIV 24 47 59 69 38 58 60 73 48 58 58 58 29 11 -4 -22 -48 700-850 TADV -2 0 7 13 13 21 29 22 9 17 6 7 0 -6 0 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 823 865 827 790 725 601 503 415 354 355 366 264 131 184 320 487 641 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.8 29.3 30.6 31.9 33.2 34.5 35.9 37.4 39.1 40.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.7 71.3 71.8 72.0 72.3 72.4 72.3 72.3 72.1 71.8 71.1 70.1 69.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 13 13 7 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 39 37 37 37 24 8 0 13 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 2. 5. 10. 14. 19. 17. 14. 6. -1. -8. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 13. 9. -1. -12. -21. -28. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.2 70.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 455.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 14.1% 9.9% 8.1% 7.8% 9.0% 6.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.3% 3.3% 3.1% 1.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.8% 4.4% 3.7% 3.0% 3.7% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 67 70 70 72 76 79 81 78 74 64 53 44 37 37 35 18HR AGO 65 64 65 68 68 70 74 77 79 76 72 62 51 42 35 35 33 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 64 66 70 73 75 72 68 58 47 38 31 31 29 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 57 61 64 66 63 59 49 38 29 22 22 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT