* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 78 84 89 88 80 73 62 54 42 40 41 42 44 46 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 78 84 89 88 80 73 62 45 41 40 35 31 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 71 76 80 85 86 82 74 65 47 42 41 37 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 5 8 6 7 11 7 11 11 21 31 20 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 2 4 7 7 0 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 183 177 177 157 158 146 174 172 207 222 260 281 280 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.2 28.0 27.2 26.6 27.3 30.2 31.0 29.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 149 150 151 145 142 133 127 135 165 167 158 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -51.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 58 56 49 44 38 39 36 33 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 25 27 26 25 22 21 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 6 20 24 29 39 25 21 20 14 10 22 12 13 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 45 47 33 45 1 -8 0 -8 5 17 -2 -3 -19 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 4 0 1 -2 0 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 456 439 423 395 368 283 191 145 116 57 -30 10 22 -10 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.4 21.4 22.5 23.4 24.2 25.1 26.0 27.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.3 110.3 110.5 110.9 111.4 111.9 112.1 111.8 111.1 110.4 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 5 4 4 5 6 2 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 11 12 11 7 6 2 1 3 26 32 17 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. -0. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. -1. -1. -8. -13. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 24. 29. 28. 20. 13. 2. -6. -18. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.8 110.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 11.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 11.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.89 15.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 364.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 -7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 13.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.8% 64.3% 61.3% 59.6% 50.3% 37.8% 25.7% 0.0% Logistic: 12.7% 15.1% 11.0% 7.7% 6.4% 10.3% 8.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 28.1% 24.6% 22.6% 19.1% 16.1% 11.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##